Gold Prices May Slip to ₹80,000 as Russia Shifts Strategy

Chandani — Tue, 17 Feb 2026 17:55:50 +0000

Gold prices could fall below ₹80,000 per sovereign by late 2027, according to new reports released Tuesday. This forecast follows a period of extreme price swings that have left buyers worried.

The yellow metal hit a record high just last month on January 29. At that time, one gram cost ₹16,800 and one sovereign reached ₹1,34,400. However, the market saw a sharp 10% drop the very next day. Now, analysts warn that the factors driving gold higher are fading fast.

The Sudden Shift in Market Sentiment

Recently, global gold prices surged as central banks began storing the metal in huge amounts. This demand pushed rates to levels that most local buyers can no longer afford.

In fact, the price move was so fast that experts now call for a major correction. Even so, the latest drop is linked to a massive shift in how the world handles money. Since the US began pressuring global trade partners, the “de-dollarization” trend has started to slow down.

The Russia-Dollar Pivot

Russia was a main driver of the early gold rally. Yet, Moscow is now believed to be changing its path. Due to heavy US pressure on trade, reports suggest Russia may resume full use of the US dollar.

Therefore, the Kremlin might soon sell its vast gold reserves to secure cash. Thus, the supply of gold in the market would rise sharply. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends through a trade deal, gold would lose its status as a “safe-haven” asset. As a result, prices would tumble.

BRICS and the Trump Tax Impact

BRICS nations, including India and China, bought 50% of the world’s gold over the last six months. They did this to protect themselves from new US tax policies.

Now, these nations are scaling back their buys. If they stop their big purchases, the floor under the gold market will break. Recently, South Africa and Brazil have also shown signs of cooling demand. This shift suggests that the global rush for bullion is finally ending.

Bloomberg Price Projections

Bloomberg data shows that Indian gold rates could soon hit a range between ₹70,000 and ₹80,000. To understand the weight of gold in grams versus a sovereign, we can use the following formula:

Price_{Gram} = \frac{Price_{Sovereign}}{8}

If the sovereign price falls to the predicted ₹80,000, the gram price would sit near ₹10,000. This drop would be a massive relief for the jewelry sector.

Reality Check: Bullish vs Bearish

While some foresee a crash, big banks like Goldman Sachs remain bullish. They argue that global debt will keep gold high. In fact, internal memos show these banks still target $4,500 per ounce. Still, the user data suggests that the Russia-dollar shift is a “black swan” event. If Russia truly sells its reserves, the bullish case for gold will vanish.

The Hidden Loopholes

There is one major gap in this forecast. The Russian government has not issued a formal denial of the dollar reports. In fact, this silence makes the predictions seem more credible to traders. Yet, if the US-Russia trade deal fails, gold could bounce back to record highs within days.

What This Means for You

First, do not panic sell your current holdings. Second, wait for the market to stabilize after the April tax season. Then, look for entry points near the ₹1,00,000 mark. Finally, remember that gold moves slowly. The fall to ₹80,000 is expected to be gradual, not sudden.

What’s Next

Watch for official statements from the BRICS summit next month. These meetings will decide the future of the “de-dollarization” plan. The next major price signal will likely come when Russia clears its first large gold auction.

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