Assam Exit Polls 2026: BJP-led NDA Set for Historic Hat-Trick

Chandani — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 04:57:41 +0000

Assam Exit Polls 2026: NDA Set for Massive Win with 80+ Seats

Now the first wave of exit polls for Assam shows a clear trend for the state. Specifically, three major surveys predict a huge “hat-trick” win for the BJP-led NDA alliance. Indeed, the voting for the final phase ended on Wednesday, closing the polls for five states and territories. Actually, the NDA seems set to cross the 80-seat mark in the 126-member house. Therefore, the ruling party is likely to stay in power with a very strong majority. In fact, the latest data suggests a historic sweep is on the way. Simple as that.

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Assam Exit Polls 2026: Seat Projections

Now you can see how the different pollsters view the final outcome. Actually, most groups agree that the NDA will dominate the 126-member Assembly. In fact, here is the data from the top surveys.

Pollster	NDA Forecast	Congress+ Forecast	Verdict
Axis My India	88 – 100	24 – 36	NDA Sweep
Matrize	85 – 95	25 – 32	NDA Sweep
P-MARQ	82 – 94	30 – 40	NDA Sweep
Poll Diary	86 – 101	15 – 26	NDA Sweep
People’s Pulse	68 – 72	22 – 26	NDA Lead

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1. Axis My India: The 48% Vote Share

Now the numbers from Axis My India show a very wide gap between the two main sides. Actually, they predict that the NDA will grab nearly half of all votes cast.

The Vote Breakdown

NDA Alliance: Expected to secure 48 per cent of the total vote share.
Congress Alliance: Projected to receive roughly 38 per cent of the votes.
Others: The remaining 14 per cent will likely go to smaller parties and independents.

Thus, the NDA holds a massive 10 per cent lead over its closest rival. Furthermore, this gap explains why the seat count for the BJP-led group is so high in every survey. Specifically, a 48 per cent share usually leads to a landslide victory in Indian elections. Therefore, the “Gogoi trio” and the Congress coalition face a very tough road ahead. Period.

2. Strong Consensus Across All Pollsters

Now it is rare to see almost every survey point toward the same result so clearly. Actually, four out of five major polls put the NDA well above the 80-seat mark.

Consistent Findings

First, P-MARQ and Matrize both see the NDA getting between 82 and 95 seats. Next, Poll Diary pushes those numbers even higher, reaching up to 101 seats for the saffron party. Thus, there is a strong “wave” appearing in the data for the 8th Pay Commission year of 2026. Additionally, only People’s Pulse gives a lower estimate of 68-72 seats, though they still show an NDA lead. Moreover, the Congress projections remain low across the board, never crossing 40 seats in any major poll. Consequently, the data suggests a very one-sided contest. Period.

3. The Struggle for the Congress Coalition

Now the Congress-led alliance appears to be heading for a possible defeat. Actually, their seat estimates are down to as low as 15 in some surveys.

The Defeat Scenario

First, the Axis My India poll shows the Congress alliance losing ground compared to previous years. Next, they estimate that the group will only manage 24-36 seats. Thus, the leadership under the Gogoi family may face hard questions after the final results come out. Additionally, the wide disparity in seat projections across all polls highlights a lack of momentum for the opposition. Moreover, the 38 per cent vote share is simply not enough to stop the NDA’s growth in the state. Consequently, the BJP’s “double engine” narrative seems to have worked well in Assam.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How many seats are there in the Assam Assembly?

Now, the Assam Assembly has a total of 126 members. Thus, a party needs 64 seats for a simple majority.

Q: What does the term “Hat-Trick” mean here?

Actually, it refers to the BJP-led NDA potentially winning three consecutive state elections in Assam. Therefore, it would be a historic run for the alliance.

Q: Which other states finished their polls on the same day?

Actually, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Puducherry also concluded their elections recently. Therefore, the entire nation is now waiting for the counting day.

Q: Which pollster gives the highest seats to the NDA?

Since Poll Diary estimates up to 101 seats, they are the most optimistic about the NDA’s performance. Therefore, they predict a total wipeout for the opposition.

The Bottom Line

Now the Assam Exit Polls of 2026 point toward a massive return for the BJP-led NDA. While the final counting is still pending, the initial data shows a clear public mandate for the ruling alliance.

Overall, the goal for the NDA was to secure a third straight term, and the polls suggest they have done it easily. Therefore, the “Gogoi trio” will likely need to rethink their strategy for the coming years. Thus, the North East remains a stronghold for the saffron party in 2026. Meanwhile, keep checking our blog for the live results on counting day! Lastly, we hope for a stable and prosperous term for the people of Assam!

NDA 80+. Hat-trick likely. Period.

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