The global energy watchdog just pulled the “emergency break.” On Wednesday, March 11, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the largest release of government oil reserves in history. Now, with the US-Israel-Iran war entering its third week, 32 nations are flooding the market with 400 million barrels of crude. So, why the panic? Actually, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively a “dead zone.” And as Tehran warns of $200 oil, the world is running out of time.

The “One-Shot” Strategy

Look, the math is staggering. The IEA is releasing one-third of its total emergency holdings. Previously, the largest release was 182 million barrels after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Today, we are seeing double that. But experts are skeptical. Indeed, Neil Quilliam of Chatham House calls it a “high-risk strategy.” Basically, if this doesn’t work, there is no Plan B.

The Breakdown:

• Total IEA Release: 400 million barrels.

• US Contribution: 172 million barrels from the SPR.

• Japan’s Share: 80 million barrels (acting “first”).

• Germany’s Share: 19.5 million barrels.

Trump’s Massive U-Turn

Previously, President Trump slammed the use of strategic reserves. Now, he’s leading the charge. The US will release 172 million barrels over the next 120 days. However, there’s a catch. Actually, the US reserve only has 415 million barrels left. So, this drawdown is a huge gamble. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says deliveries will start next week. Still, it takes 13 days for that oil to even hit the market.

The Hormuz Chokepoint

Why is this happening? Because 20 million barrels of oil usually pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day. Since the war began on February 28, that flow has stopped. Instead, 13 commercial ships have been attacked. Indeed, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is even more defiant. He says not “one litre” will pass until the strikes stop. Consequently, Brent crude is already hovering over $100.

Can Asia Wait?

Look, the crisis is hitting Asia the hardest. In India, people are already queuing for fuel. But here’s the problem: Actually, US oil molecules move slow. If the oil has to be shipped from Texas to Mumbai, it won’t arrive until mid-May. Meanwhile, India is scrambling for Russian crude as a stopgap.

“Unless the underlying problem is solved, no release can fix the market,” says energy expert Maksim Sonin. Right.

The Bottom Line

So, is this enough? Doubt it. The 400 million barrels only cover about 20 days of what usually flows through Hormuz. If the blockade lasts months, the “one-shot” solution will evaporate. Next, we watch the tankers. However, until the guns go silent in the Gulf, expect those prices at the pump to keep climbing.

Are you seeing fuel rationing in your city, or is the supply still holding up?

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