Weather Update: IMD Confirms El Nino Onset, Warns of Strengthening Monsoon Impact
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially confirmed that El Nino conditions have developed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In its June 2026 ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Bulletin, the agency warned that this climate phenomenon is likely to intensify as the southwest monsoon season progresses.
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Key Findings from the June 2026 Bulletin
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Official Onset: Warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have surpassed the established El Nino threshold.
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Coupled System: The atmosphere has officially responded to these oceanic changes, confirming that the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is firmly in an El Nino state.
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Measurement: The three-month average Nio 3.4 index—the primary metric for tracking this phenomenon—has climbed above +0.5°C, signaling the official transition.
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Forecasted Trend: Using the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS), the IMD predicts that El Nino conditions will expand and strengthen through the central and eastern Pacific from July onwards, likely reaching moderate-to-strong intensity during the monsoon.
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Implications for India’s Monsoon
Historically, El Nino is associated with atmospheric disruptions that lead to weaker monsoon rainfall, higher average temperatures, and prolonged dry spells across parts of India. While the current impact is concerning, experts are monitoring secondary drivers:
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Neutral IOD: Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail, meaning they are neither amplifying nor significantly offsetting the El Nino effects at this stage.
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Potential Silver Lining: The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which declared the onset of El Nino on June 11, has noted that a positive IOD could potentially develop by July. If this occurs, it might help offset some of the adverse impacts on India’s monsoon rainfall.
The IMD has stated that it will continue to monitor the evolving Pacific conditions closely and provide regular monthly updates throughout the remainder of the monsoon season.
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