The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released an updated forecast for the 2025 southwest monsoon season (June to September), predicting above-normal rainfall across the country. According to the Meteorological Department, the total monsoon rainfall this year is likely to be 106% of the long-term average (LPA), with an error margin of ±4%.
The Meteorological Department said that the monsoon reached Kerala on May 24, which was earlier than the usual date (June 1), and reached Mumbai on May 26, which is 16 days earlier than usual. During the next 2-3 days, the monsoon is likely to advance into Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Sikkim and other parts of the northeastern states.
According to the forecast:
• Rainfall is likely to be above normal in central and southern peninsular India.
• Rainfall is common in northwestern India, while
• Northeast India is expected to receive less than normal rainfall.
Rainfall is also predicted to be above normal (>108% LPA) for June 2025.
However, rainfall may be less than normal in some parts of South India and some areas of Northeast and Northwest India.
In terms of temperature:
• Maximum temperatures are likely to remain normal or below normal in most parts of the country, while
• Minimum temperatures may remain above normal.
Heat wave conditions are also likely to be less severe. Fewer than normal heat wave days are expected in northwest and central India in June 2025.
The department has described the ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) conditions as “neutral”, which is considered favourable for the monsoon. Along with this, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to develop into a negative position, which may have some impact over South India.
According to the Meteorological Department, the accuracy of predictions has improved compared to previous years and high confidence has been expressed in the 2025 forecast.
The 2025 monsoon could prove to be good for most parts of the country, which is a positive sign for agriculture and water resources.
