8th Pay Commission: The 8th Pay Commission has not been formed yet. But, discussions are in full swing regarding the fitment factor. A report by financial services firm Ambit Capital has estimated that the new pay commission may recommend a fitment factor between 1.83 to 2.46 for employees. This estimate has been made on the basis of salary growth during the previous pay commissions.
Possibility of increase from 14% to 54%
According to the report, the actual salary hike (including basic pay + DA) in the 8th Pay Commission can be at least 14% and maximum 54%. However, the report also says that the possibility of a maximum hike of 54% is very low, as it will put a huge financial burden on the government.
According to a report by Ambit Capital, “The government may consider higher salary hikes to boost consumption, but a 54% hike like the 6th Pay Commission does not seem possible.”
There may be a 30-34% increase in the mid-range
According to Ambit’s analysis, a ‘mid-range’ increase of 30-34% is the estimate that the government and the commission can consider. According to the report, the worst-case scenario could be a 14.3% increase and the best-case scenario could be a 54% increase. Keeping this in mind, three possible fitment factors have been fixed – 1.83 (minimum), 2.15 (median), and 2.46 (maximum).
Potential new salary at ₹40,000 basic salary
If the current basic pay of an employee is ₹40,000, then the possible total salary (including basic + DA) as per different fitment factors in 8th Pay Commission can be something like this:
| Fitment Factor | Current Basic Salary |
Potential Salary
|
| 1.83 | ₹40,000 | ₹92,238 |
| 2.15 | ₹40,000 | ₹1,09,002 |
| 2.46 | ₹40,000 | ₹1,20,933 |
DA increase up to 60% possible
The report also said that currently the Dearness Allowance (DA) is around 55% and it can reach 60% by the end of 2025. In such a situation, a salary growth of at least 14% is considered certain under the 8th Pay Commission, which is according to the trends of the last four pay commissions. Government employees and pensioners are still waiting for the formation of the 8th Pay Commission and the announcement of its Terms of Reference.
