India’s foreign exchange reserves are expected to climb close to a record high in the coming weeks, supported by strong capital inflows following a series of measures introduced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), according to analysts.

The country’s forex reserves increased by $10.5 billion to $692.9 billion for the week ended July 31, marking the biggest weekly jump since late January. The current reserve level is now approaching the all-time high of $728.5 billion, which was recorded in February.

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RBI Measures Drive Strong Capital Inflows

India’s foreign exchange reserves have now increased for five consecutive weeks after the RBI introduced several initiatives to attract overseas capital.

Since early June, these measures have brought in approximately $40.8 billion through:

• Foreign currency deposits from the Indian diaspora
• Overseas borrowings
• Other foreign capital inflows

The higher reserve levels provide the RBI with additional resources to stabilize the rupee during periods of market volatility.

Analysts Expect Reserves to Touch $730 Billion

Gaura Sen Gupta, Chief Economist at IDFC First Bank, believes India’s forex reserves could reach around $730 billion by September, provided there are no major valuation losses on gold or non-dollar reserve assets.

She estimates that the RBI’s initiatives could ultimately attract between $90 billion and $100 billion in total capital inflows.

Challenges Could Limit Further Growth

Despite the positive outlook, analysts caution that forex reserves may not necessarily surpass their previous record.

According to Sakshi Gupta, Chief Economist at HDFC Bank, the RBI continues to utilize part of its reserves to:

• Support the Indian rupee through market intervention.
• Deliver dollars against forward contracts as they mature.

These activities could offset some of the reserve gains in the coming months.

Why Rising Forex Reserves Matter

A larger foreign exchange reserve strengthens India’s financial position by:

• Supporting the Indian rupee during periods of volatility.
• Improving investor confidence.
• Helping meet external payment obligations.
• Providing a cushion against global economic uncertainties.

With capital inflows continuing to improve, analysts believe India is well positioned to maintain healthy reserve levels over the coming months.

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The Government of India has approved the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) proposal to begin field trials of polymer-based ₹10 and ₹20 banknotes, marking the country’s first major step toward testing plastic currency.

The approval was confirmed by Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary in a written reply in the Lok Sabha. Under the proposal, the RBI will issue one billion ₹10 notes and one billion ₹20 notes made from polymer for pilot testing across selected regions.

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Pilot rollout to assess performance

According to the government, the polymer notes will initially be introduced on a trial basis to evaluate how they perform under India’s climatic and usage conditions.

The RBI will assess factors such as durability, handling and circulation before deciding whether the new notes should be introduced on a larger scale.

Officials have clarified that any nationwide rollout will depend entirely on the outcome of these field trials.

Why is RBI testing polymer notes?

The Reserve Bank has maintained that polymer banknotes generally have a longer lifespan than conventional paper currency.

Based on international experience, polymer notes are considered more resistant to wear and tear, moisture and repeated handling, making them suitable for countries where cash remains widely used.

The central bank believes these characteristics could improve the longevity of lower-denomination notes, which typically change hands more frequently.

Paper currency is not being replaced

The government has emphasized that the pilot does not signal the replacement of existing paper currency.

Instead, polymer notes are expected to circulate alongside traditional paper banknotes if the trials prove successful.

In his written reply, Pankaj Chaudhary stated that there is currently no proposal under consideration to replace paper substrate-based banknotes with polymer-based currency.

Impact on digital payments yet to be assessed

The RBI has also clarified that it is too early to determine whether polymer banknotes will influence the adoption of digital payments.

According to the central bank, any assessment can only be made after the new notes enter regular circulation and sufficient operational data becomes available.

The RBI reiterated that cash and digital payment systems complement each other, and both are expected to continue serving different payment needs across the country.

Next steps

With the Finance Ministry’s approval in place, the RBI is expected to proceed with the pilot issuance of polymer ₹10 and ₹20 notes.

The results of the field trials will help determine whether India expands the use of polymer currency in the future or continues relying primarily on traditional paper banknotes.

FAQ

What has the government approved?

The Finance Ministry has approved the RBI’s proposal to issue one billion ₹10 polymer notes and one billion ₹20 polymer notes for field trials.

Why is the RBI introducing polymer notes?

Polymer banknotes are generally more durable than paper notes and can last longer in circulation, reducing replacement costs over time.

Will paper currency be discontinued?

No. The government has clearly stated that there is no proposal to replace existing paper banknotes with polymer notes. Both could coexist if the pilot succeeds.

Will polymer notes affect digital payments?

The RBI says it is too early to assess any impact on digital payments. Cash and digital payment systems are expected to continue operating alongside each other.

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The year 2024 is coming to an end and the new year is once again bringing new hopes for the future. The Indian economy also has high hopes for the year 2025 and according to the Department of Industry and Internal Promotion (DPIIT), the next year is going to prove to be good for India on the foreign investment front.

DPIIT says that despite global uncertainties and challenges, the average monthly foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India have been over $4.5 billion since January 2024. This trend is expected to continue in 2025 as the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government promotes investor-friendly measures in the country.

According to DPIIT, investor-friendly policies, strong returns on investment, skilled workforce, low compliance burden, elimination of small scale industry-related offences, National Single Window System for streamlined approvals and clearances and Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes are creating ample opportunities to attract foreign investors to India. Further, to ensure that India remains an attractive and investor-friendly destination, the government reviews the FDI policy on a continuous basis.

How much was FDI?

During the January-September period this year, foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country increased by about 42 percent to $42.13 billion. In the same period last year, FDI was $29.73 billion. In April-September 2024-25, FDI inflows increased by 45 percent to $29.79 billion, from $20.48 billion in the same period last fiscal. Total FDI in 2023-24 was $71.28 billion.

What is expected from 2025?

Amardeep Singh Bhatia, Secretary, Department of Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade, said that as per the trend, the country will continue to attract good foreign direct investment in 2025 as well. India continues to open its economy to global investors by increasing foreign investment limits, removing regulatory hurdles, developing infrastructure and improving the business environment.

FDI increased in 10 years

During the last ten years (2004-2024), a total FDI inflow of US$ 991 billion was recorded, of which 67 percent (US$ 667 billion) was received in just 10 years i.e. 2014-2024. From US$ 98 billion in 2004-2014 to US$ 165 billion in 2014-2024, FDI equity inflows in the manufacturing sector have increased by 69 percent. India continues to be a preferred investment destination for global companies.

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He also said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken steps to make economic growth all-inclusive. While addressing the ‘Mati Kala Mahotsav’, Shah said that three times increase in the business of Khadi sector means providing employment opportunities to a large number of people.

He said that with such initiatives the rising figures of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will become more humane. He said that thanks to the efforts of Prime Minister Modi, Khadi has become more attractive to the people than the freedom movement. Shah said, “India’s GDP data indicated that we remain the fastest growing economy in the world. India’s economy has grown rapidly under the leadership of Modiji. Earlier our economy was at 11th place and now it is at 5th place. Also, Modiji has taken steps to make the economy all-inclusive.

Economic growth rate

According to official data released on Thursday, the country’s economic growth rate stood at 7.6 percent in the July-September quarter of the current financial year. It was 6.2 percent in the same quarter a year ago. Shah said, “Three times increase in Khadi sales means creation of jobs for millions and crores of people. When you give them jobs, make them self-reliant, spread happiness in their homes, then the rising GDP figures become humanitarian. These measures not only increase GDP, but also bring self-confidence, self-reliance and happiness to crores of people.

Vocal for local

He said that Modi not only revived the idea of ​​Khadi but also made it more popular among the common people. Shah said, “Modi worked to link the slogan of ‘Vocal for Local’ with Swadeshi and employment. Due to his determination, the weak Khadi movement is today touching new dimensions.

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Tell us about the deposit ratings of SBI, PNB, Canara Bank and Bank of Baroda. There has been an improvement. Rating agency Moody’s has given information about this on Friday.

What is the rating of SBI?

Moody’s Investors Service said in a statement that the long-term ratings of all these public sector banks remain stable. Moody’s has retained SBI’s long-term local and foreign currency bank deposit ratings at Baa3, while the other three PSBs have upgraded their long-term deposit ratings.

What is the rating of Canara and PNB?

It has said that retaining the long term deposit rating of SBI at BAA3 and upgrading the long term deposit rating of Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank and PNB from BAA1 to BAA3 reflects the improvement in India’s macroeconomic outlook. This also reflects the perception of a very high level of government support to banks in times of need.

Improvement in credit position

Moody’s Bank Deposit Rating reflects a bank’s ability to service its foreign and domestic currency deposit obligations on time. Moody’s said that credit conditions in India have gradually improved, with retail loans performing well and the financial health of companies improving. However, small and medium-sized companies continue to pose a risk to the asset quality of banks.

Indian economy will perform better

Moody’s has said that India’s economic growth will be affected by rising rates and global recession but the Indian economy will perform better than other emerging markets. With these factors, the operating environment for banks will remain supportive.

What is the expectation of the rating agency?

The rating agency expects the asset quality of banks to remain good over the next one-and-a-half years, aided by a favorable operating environment and improving balance sheets of companies.

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Therefore, this time it is expected that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will give many gifts to the people this time. If sources are to be believed, there is a possibility of change in the current income tax slab in this year’s budget. Income tax payers also hope that in the budget, the government will try to woo the middle class by increasing the income tax limit.

Even in the last budget, it was expected that the government would give tax relief to the middle class. But, this was not done. Reviewing Budget 2022, TV Mohandas Pai, chairman of Aerin Capital Partners and renowned financial expert, said that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has turned the budget into a ‘transformational budget’ by not giving tax relief to the middle class. It is expected that this time the Finance Minister will not let this opportunity pass.

If the income tax limit is increased by changing the income tax slab, then the middle class will be benefited the most. The middle class faced the biggest problem in Kovid-19. Most of the jobs in this category went during the Corona period. This class also spent the most on health.

Now the Indian economy has recovered to a great extent from the effect of Corona. The income of the government is increasing. This has raised hopes that this time the government will definitely give tax relief.

In March 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had told that a total of 8,13,22,263 people have filed income tax in the assessment year 2020-21 i.e. 2019-20 financial year. If we consider only four members in the family of an income tax payer, then there are 32 crore people, whom we can call middle class.

The middle class is the engine of consumption in the Indian economy. This is the population that buys cars and takes home loans. They are the main taxpayers of India and also the consumers.

Experts say that if the government increases the income tax limit by changing the income tax slab in the budget, then more money will come in the hands of the middle class of the country. This will also increase consumption. This will not only benefit the country’s economy, but BJP can also get political advantage in the general elections to be held in the year 2024.

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